Download PDF by John G. Cross: A Theory of Adaptive Economic Behavior

By John G. Cross

ISBN-10: 0521251109

ISBN-13: 9780521251105

This e-book develops dynamic fiscal versions utilizing the point of view and analytic framework supplied by way of mental studying concept. This framework is used to unravel obvious contradictions among optimization concept, which lies on the middle of all sleek fiscal thought, and day by day proof that short-run monetary behaviour can't quite be defined completely because the end result of successfully applied self-interest. the writer applies this perspective to a couple of areas of difficulty during which literal functions of maximization conception haven't often proved to be passable. those comprise analyses of decision-making below uncertainty and playing behaviour, the function of consumer-oriented advertisements in influencing behaviour, the patience of cost dispersions in markets, and inflation.

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Extra resources for A Theory of Adaptive Economic Behavior

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58, and the vector <1>0 was uniform, each choice being given a likelihood of 0. 1 . The feedback process described by equations (3 . 3) was then simulated over twenty iterations. At the end of this sequence, the variables had achieved values e = 1 . 589 and <1>1 = ( 0. 055, 0. 059, 0. 064, 0. 105, 0. 1 64, 0. 1 93 , 0. 088, 0. 060, 0. 053 ) . These values were then used as the initial conditions for all subsequent iter­ ations. In effect, the convergence process is redirected toward a new goal in midstream.

1944; Siegel, 1 957) suggests that achievement o f a goal will lead to upward revisions, and failure to achieve a goal will lead to downward revisions in the goal itself. Although it may be that these adjustments serve only to accelerate convergence toward equilibrium states, we must recognize that the behavioral effect of any given payoff may depend on the point in experience at which it arises. Once the distinction is established, we might expect success and failure to have symmetric qualitative effects on behavior.

Thus, with probability one, the values of both 1 and 2 decline to zero, and the argument can be repeated with respect to the choice A3 • Each choice in turn may be eliminated by this procedure until we arrive at the asymptotic equilibrium: With probability one, n -+ l , and because A n is the optimal choice, we have our desired result. Proportional models There are many cases in which one cannot make use of an adjusting aspiration level to achieve convergence . This occurs whenever the distinc­ tion between success and failure is so natural to the situation that it is implausible that the origin of the utility function should shift signifi­ cantly over time.

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A Theory of Adaptive Economic Behavior by John G. Cross


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